After a 10-15 year lull, relationships between the Taiwan Straights are
breaking down. Both sides have been content to open up tourism and
development of business across the two economic areas. Taiwan has now
become completely dependent on business in Mainland China. However, the
political aspirations of people in Taiwan wish to remain a separate
entity despite the lack of formal international political recognition.
Recently , we have seen the media rhetoric on Taiwan increase to levels we
have not seen in 15 years or more. Is this a result of increasingly bold
politicians in Taiwan or President Trump’s statements on putting the Taiwan
issue back on the table?
One thing to be certain is that any support of Taiwan by the U.S. would see
the end of the U.S. Pacific fleet. In fact many war-gamers speculate that an
attack on Taiwan would be to mainly draw in the U.S. Pacific fleet to destroy it
with Dongfeng land based cruise missiles. Once the illusion of American military
superiority is broken over a South Sea conflict or a Taiwan straights conflict,
the U.S. Dollar will collapse from the break in the confidence game of the world’s
fiat reserve currency. Consumer goods shortages in the U.S. will develop as Chinese
exports evaporate or need to be imported from 3rd countries. Blackmarkets will
develop in the U.S. and from there general breakdown will ensue.